What's happening in the waters ahead, in plain words

JMIC raised its rating for this area from Moderate to Substantial on 18 October. Substantial is the level JMIC defines as an attack being a strong possibility. JMIC gave as the reason Iranian attacks, four since 7 October. A tanker was struck by three drones in the central Gulf on 7 October, and one crew member was injured. On 16 October two more tankers were attacked about 68 and 78 nautical miles northeast of Al Jubayl in Saudi Arabia, and in both the crew were reported safe (UKMTO 174-26 and 175-26). JMIC says ships that stay at anchor for a long time may face a higher risk, and that GPS interference has increased. It advises ships at anchor to keep moving where practical, reposition within the anchorage when safe to do so, and report to UKMTO. On 20 October a tanker was struck about 30 nautical miles southeast of Al Faw in Iraq; the crew were reported safe. JMIC counts this as the fifth attack inside the Gulf since 7 October, and says attacks remain a strong possibility throughout the Gulf, including at anchorages off Iraq. On 26 October UKMTO warned of a vessel on fire about 63 nautical miles southeast of Al-Faw in Iraq, reported by other ships; nothing more is known about the crew or the cause (UKMTO 183-26). On 30 October a ship’s master reported that a vessel about 40 nautical miles south of Lavan Island, Iran, was hit by a projectile and caught fire; the crew were reported safe (UKMTO 188-26). On 1 November a tanker was struck about 72 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji in Saudi Arabia, and all crew were accounted for (UKMTO 192-26). On 4 November another tanker was struck about 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal in Qatar; its crew status was not yet known (UKMTO 196-26). JMIC counts eight attacks inside the Gulf since 7 October, and says GPS interference is still high. Hundreds of ships are waiting at anchor off the UAE and Oman.

JMIC rates this area Severe, which it defines as meaning an attack is highly likely. A conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, which UKMTO dates from 28 February 2026, continues to affect shipping. Attacks on ships continued after 8 October. On 11 and 13 October, JMIC records eight more ships struck by unknown projectiles in the strait, including four container ships. One of them, the container ship GFS PRIDE, caught fire and sank on 14 October. All of its crew were evacuated and none were injured. JMIC says reported incidents have increased. A vessel at anchor in the Gulf of Oman, the PETRO DOLPHIN, was also struck on 11 October, and the Ministry of External Affairs, India, reported two of its crew missing. On 18 October a tug about 20 nautical miles northeast of Khor Fakkan was hit by two projectiles; it kept going and one minor injury was reported (UKMTO 177-26). On 21 October a tanker was struck about 11 nautical miles west of Bukha in Oman; a fire was put out, the ship is at anchor, and all crew were reported safe (UKMTO 179-26). On 22 October a tanker was hit about 7 nautical miles northeast of Limah in Oman and carried on to its next port (UKMTO 181-26). On 23 October UKMTO reported a tanker disabled by a projectile in the strait, with the crew safe (UKMTO 182-26). JMIC’s 29 October note names it as the GHANA PROSPERITY, now at anchor. Between 28 October and 5 November, JMIC records seven more attacks off Oman’s Musandam coast (UKMTO 186-26 to 195-26). A tug, the SELAT STORM, was reported sunk on 1 November, and reports about its crew conflict. On 2 November an Indian-crewed dhow, the MSV AL JUSUFI, was attacked; Indian officials report one crew member died and 13 were rescued by the Royal Navy of Oman. In the other five, the crews were reported safe. On 5 November a tanker leaving the strait reported an explosion at the waterline about 16 nautical miles east of Khasab; the crew are safe and the ship carried on (UKMTO 197-26). JMIC advises mariners to watch for mines. On 17 October the IRGC Navy claimed two tankers had hit mines, which JMIC says has no support. The US Navy is blockading ships headed to Iranian ports. JMIC advises keeping 30 nautical miles away from US warships to reduce the risk of being mistaken for another vessel. A JMIC note of 28 October says ships crossing the blockade area may be questioned and searched, and should listen on VHF channel 16 and keep their voyage papers ready as signed PDF files. JMIC says about 229 ships were stationary at the anchorages east of the strait on 5 November.

JMIC rates this area Moderate. The US is enforcing a blockade on ships headed to Iranian ports, and JMIC says this does not directly affect other ships passing through. On 11 October the tanker PETRO DOLPHIN was struck by a drone near Sohar in Oman. Its crew were evacuated, and the Ministry of External Affairs, India, reported two crew missing. Around 10 or 11 October the US said it disabled the bulk carrier Ocean Molica after it ignored repeated warnings; the crew were reported safe. JMIC reports about 179 ships waiting at anchor off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan on 5 November, down from 217 on 18 October. No new attack was reported in the Gulf of Oman in JMIC’s 5 November note. JMIC advises keeping 30 nautical miles from US warships and listening on VHF channel 16.

JMIC rates this area Moderate. No attacks were reported through 5 November, and JMIC does not expect the threat to change soon. On 19 October UKMTO reported that a tanker about 121 nautical miles east of Duqm in Oman was involved in an interaction with military forces. JMIC describes this as part of the blockade activity, says it was not an attack, and says no crew were hurt.

JMIC rates this area Moderate, which it defines as meaning an attack is possible but not likely. No new confirmed incidents were reported in JMIC’s 5 November note. UKMTO reports 44 piracy-related incidents this year, eleven of them boardings or hijackings. Five ships taken since April have been released or recovered. The tanker Asana, hijacked on 17 July, is still held, now for about 103 days as of 28 October. On 29 October armed pirates took a fishing vessel, the AZINI, east-southeast of Socotra, and it could have been used as a base for attacks further out. It was freed on 2 November, and the Indian Navy recovered it and rescued its crew (UKMTO 190-26). JMIC says the incident shows pirate groups are likely to reach further out, toward routes east and south of Socotra. JMIC says pirate groups can still board ships along the Somali coast, and with the monsoon over since 15 October, small boats can now go further out to sea.

JMIC rates this area Substantial, which it defines as meaning an attack is a strong possibility. JMIC’s 5 November note reports no confirmed attacks, and traffic stayed steady. On 30 October an armed skiff with four people approached a merchant ship about 50 nautical miles south of Aden and turned away when the ship’s armed security team showed their weapons (MSCIO 160/26). On 28 October UKMTO warned that several suspicious small boats had been seen near merchant ships in the Gulf of Aden. One boat was described as green and blue with two ladders and a hook and nine people on board (UKMTO 184-26). Ships should follow the BMP guidance and report anything suspicious. On 10 September, people boarded the cargo ship Glamor; the crew went into the citadel, the boarders left, and all crew were safe. UKMTO says incidents have moved toward the Gulf of Aden, and that attackers have shown they can reach ships up to 500 nautical miles from shore. On 17 October the master of an LNG tanker reported a small boat with seven people approaching about 140 nautical miles southeast of Al Mukalla, Yemen. The boat fired two shots, the ship’s armed security team fired two warning shots, and the boat turned away (UKMTO 176-26). JMIC’s rating has not changed. JMIC counts three reports of suspicious small boats since 17 October, suggests pirate group activity has resumed now that the monsoon has ended, and that more approaches are likely.

JMIC rates this area Substantial. Houthi forces in Yemen took control of more of this coastline in September. JMIC’s latest note says that reported Houthi control of those September gains is disputed until it is independently confirmed. The Houthis have said they do not intend to close the strait to international shipping, but they are restricting vessels linked to Saudi Arabia. No attacks on ships were reported in the area through 5 November. JMIC counted 136 ships passing through between 1 and 4 November, about 34 a day, after 93 between 25 and 28 October. On 3 November a ship reported a large floating object, possibly a boat, surrounded by smoke; the circumstances are unknown (MSCIO 168/26). JMIC also says Houthi forces keep a presence on the coast, and that Yemeni government forces have claimed gains that nobody has independently confirmed. The usual average in 2023 was about 61 a day. UKMTO’s 6 November report says no ships have been attacked in the Red Sea since 24 August, and that traffic through the strait is still 24% below the level before the Houthi blockade announcement.

JMIC rates this area Moderate. It says Suez Canal operations are normal, with occasional radio and GPS interference. No confirmed attacks or disruptions were reported through 5 November. On 16 October Saudi Arabia said it shot down a missile aimed at Yanbu. JMIC reports one possible attack on 1 October at Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, with minor disruption to the port. Loadings have resumed at Yanbu after strikes on a nearby pipeline on 10 and 11 September.

JMIC rates this area Low, which it defines as meaning an attack is highly unlikely. JMIC reports no security incidents. Radio and GPS interference happens in places, and JMIC advises keeping a sensible distance from military ships.

JMIC does not rate the Black Sea. Ships have been hit in this area. US MARAD warns of a high risk of damage to commercial vessels there. AP counted at least seven cargo ships hit off Romania and Bulgaria in the two weeks to 23 October, with 30 sailors reported killed or missing. On 5 October a cargo ship caught fire and sank in Romania’s waters, and Romanian authorities say two people died. On 6 October two ships were hit in Bulgaria’s waters, and one sank. On 13 October two more ships were hit off Bulgaria. One of them, the HS Dignity, sank, and Bulgarian officials say 11 of its crew are missing. On 14 and 15 October two tankers caught fire near the Sulina Canal in Romania, and Romania’s naval authority reported seven crew missing from one of them. Bulgaria has not named who is responsible. Searches for the missing crew were still going on as of 16 October. On 23 October the cargo ship Khoryv sank about 13 nautical miles off Constanța in Romania after a drone strike; one body was recovered, three crew are missing and nine were rescued, according to AP. Romania blamed Russia, and Russia did not immediately comment. On 28 October the container ship Contship Jet was struck by three drones off Bulgaria and sank; all 18 crew were rescued. NATO said it would send more patrol aircraft, radars and drones to the Black Sea. We could not read NATO Shipping Centre notices for this update. Please read the Black Sea card on the main board for the sources.

Neither JMIC nor UKMTO covers this area. The ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) reported fewer incidents in the Singapore Strait in the first half of 2026. It recorded boardings on 2 April, 1 May and 1 June. In some, crew were threatened; two crew were held for the length of an incident, and one was injured. Source: ICC IMB, January to June 2026 (published 9 July 2026), not rechecked since.

Neither JMIC nor UKMTO covers this area. The IMB reported only two incidents in the Gulf of Guinea in the first half of 2026, and credits regional navies and their partners. Source: ICC IMB, January to June 2026, not rechecked since.