Naupal
Methodology

How we decide what's confirmed

Every entry on the board is checked against a fixed rule before it's marked confirmed. Here's the rule, the three tiers of sources behind it, and a worked example of how it plays out.

The confirmation rule

Nothing is shown as confirmed unless it clears one Tier 1 source, or two independent Tier 2 or Tier 3 sources.

A single trade press article isn't enough on its own. Neither is a single unverified social media post, however convincing. We wait for either an official body to confirm it, or for two separate, independent Tier 2/3 sources to agree.

The three tiers

Not all sources carry the same weight, and we don't pretend otherwise. Each entry on the board is labelled with the tier that confirmed it, so you can judge the strength of the evidence yourself rather than take our word for it.

Tier 1 — Official

Coast guards, navies, and international maritime bodies. These carry the most weight because they typically have direct access to the vessels, crews, or naval assets involved.

Tier 2 — Verified open source

Independent researchers who geolocate, timestamp, and cross-check incidents using publicly available imagery and data, and who publish their evidence rather than just their conclusions.

Tier 3 — Shipping press

Wire services and trade publications with maritime desks and a track record of correction when they get something wrong.

What we exclude, and why

A few sources we respect don't appear here at all, not because the reporting is weak, but because we can't redistribute it responsibly.

If a development is only reported by an excluded source, we wait until it surfaces independently through a Tier 1, 2, or 3 channel before publishing anything about it.

A worked example

Illustrative, not a real incident

Say a merchant vessel reports an approach by a small skiff in the Gulf of Aden. A gCaptain article covers it within the hour, citing the vessel's owner. That's one Tier 3 source, not enough on its own to mark as confirmed.

A few hours later, UKMTO issues an advisory referencing the same position and time. That's a Tier 1 confirmation, and the entry can now be marked confirmed, with both sources cited.

If UKMTO hadn't issued anything, we'd instead wait for a second independent Tier 2 or Tier 3 source, for example, Reuters running its own report with a different vessel-tracking source, before marking it confirmed.

When sources disagree

We show the disagreement rather than pick a side. If Tier 1 and Tier 3 sources conflict on details like vessel name, position, or cause, we note both versions and flag the discrepancy rather than presenting a single, falsely tidy account.