Maritime security, aggregated and verified.

JMIC holds the rating at Substantial in Update 111 (5 November), citing recent Iranian attacks (raised from Moderate in Update 106). JMIC states that an attack is a strong possibility. Navigation interference has also increased.

• Recent activity: UKMTO 158-26 (7 October): a tanker was struck by three UAVs in the Central Arabian Gulf, about 51 NM from the Qatari coast. An engine-room fire was extinguished, one crew member was injured, and the vessel continued its voyage. UKMTO 160-26 GEM NO.2 (9 October): a possible attack on a tanker at anchor about 11 to 13 NM off the UAE coast. A nearby master reported smoke from the vessel, and the Ministry of External Affairs, India, reported all its crew safe. UKMTO 161-26 (10 October): an advisory that several masters near Ras Al Khaimah reported a VHF order to leave their anchorages, with no attacker, damage or compliance confirmed. JMIC records no confirmed attacks or disruptions from 11 to 15 October
• JMIC assessment (Update 104): JMIC described the 9 October report as extending the threat beyond the Strait of Hormuz to stationary vessels at UAE anchorages and vessels transiting the Arabian Gulf
• Earlier casualties (9 September): A vessel at Port Rashid anchorage was found listing after a suspected projectile strike: one confirmed fatality and one crew member missing (UKMTO 130-26, JMIC Update 095)
• JMIC outlook (Update 111): Attacks remain a strong possibility throughout the Gulf, including the northern and central Gulf, anchorages and ship-to-ship transfer areas. Electronic interference was stable but remains a credible concern in the central and southern Gulf. Vessels stationary for extended periods, or keeping AIS on while static, may face elevated targeting risk
• Anchorages: On 5 November JMIC reports about 141 vessels at anchor from Dubai/Jebel Ali to Ras Al Khaimah, mainly off Sharjah, Ajman and Umm Al Quwain (149 on 29 October), about 179 off Fujairah/Khor Fakkan, about 50 off Musandam/Sohar and about 17 off Bandar Abbas/Qeshm. JMIC says the Bandar Abbas/Qeshm count is low confidence because Iranian AIS coverage is thin. Figures are internal AIS estimates; AIS-dark vessels are excluded
• Attacks inside the Gulf since 7 October: JMIC counts eight. The earlier ones were on 7 and 8 October, 16 October (UKMTO 174-26 and 175-26) and 20 October (UKMTO 180-26). The latest three: UKMTO 188-26 (30 October), the LNG carrier AL MAYEDA, struck about 40 NM south of Lavan Island, Iran, with a fire on board and the crew safe; UKMTO 192-26 (1 November), the tanker LARGO ATOM, struck by two projectiles about 72 NM east of Ras Al Khafji, Saudi Arabia, with all crew accounted for and no environmental impact; and UKMTO 196-26 (4 November), a tanker struck by two projectiles about 50 NM north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, with crew status, damage and environmental impact unconfirmed at the time of JMIC’s report
• Other activity (Updates 109 to 111): UKMTO 183-26 (26 October) reported a vessel on fire about 63 NM southeast of Al-Faw, Iraq. The cause and crew status are unknown, and it is a suspicious activity warning, not a confirmed attack. On 28 October Sharjah authorities closed beaches as a precaution against an oil leak from an unnamed tanker, after earlier closures at Umm Al Quwain and Al Hamriyah. JMIC says GNSS interference was stable and concentrated along the UAE coast near Dubai/Sharjah, and Windward recorded 362 jammed vessels of 5,921 on 3 November
• Ras Tanura (JMIC Update 109): JMIC reports a fire at the Ras Tanura export terminal in Saudi Arabia on 27 October, seen by satellite heat detection. The cause is unconfirmed. Saudi authorities attributed it to drone debris, and the Houthis claimed a ballistic missile strike

Conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, which UKMTO dates from 28 February 2026, continues to affect transit.

• Since 8 October: UKMTO 159-26 (6 Oct, reported late): a tanker struck, lost power and was heading to Ras Al Khaimah with tug assistance, no casualties. 162-26 (10 Oct): a tanker struck, fire extinguished, crew safe. 164-26 (11 Oct): a tanker struck, damage to the steering gear room and a water tank, crew safe, proceeding to Fujairah anchorage. 11 Oct: AL MAQAM struck outbound, no crew injuries (166-26); DP WORLD KAVERI struck inbound, one minor crew injury, continued voyage (167-26); KITION M struck outbound, reports of environmental damage unconfirmed (168-26); EVER VICT struck outbound, reports of crew injuries unconfirmed, vessel self-reported as not under command (169-26). 13 Oct: GFS PRIDE struck outbound (170-26, see below); a tanker struck outbound, continued voyage, no injuries (171-26); GFS GISELLE struck inbound, minor damage, no injuries (172-26); AL SAADIYAT struck outbound, minor damage, no injuries (173-26). JMIC records unknown projectiles in all of these
• GFS PRIDE: JMIC reports the container ship was struck by an unknown projectile on 13 October, caught fire, drifted and sank on 14 October. UKMTO places the sinking about 4 NM northwest of Ras Shaykh Masud. All crew were evacuated with no injuries. NAVAREA IX 373/26 warns of the wreck and floating containers near 26-16.8N 056-08.6E. The IRGC claimed on 14 October that a container ship struck a naval mine on an unauthorised route; JMIC states there is no substantiation for this claim
• Earlier in October: UKMTO logged 11 reports between 1 and 6 October (10 attacks and 1 suspicious activity report; 147-26 to 157-26 and 159-26). On 5 October the tanker ON PEACE was struck outbound; the Ministry of External Affairs, India, reported 12 crew injured and evacuated (JMIC), and UKMTO records “12 casualties” (157-26)
• Where the sources differ: For 153-26, JMIC describes an LNG carrier struck by a suspected UAV, while UKMTO describes an inbound LPG tanker struck by an unknown projectile. For 156-26, JMIC describes an LNG carrier with the engine-room fire extinguished, while UKMTO’s weekly report describes a tanker with a fire the crew were still fighting at the time of the warning. For 152-26, JMIC records that the vessel aborted its transit, while UKMTO records that the master said he would comply and the vessel continued its inbound voyage
• Attacks, 17 to 25 October: UKMTO 177-26 (18 October), a tug about 20 NM northeast of Khor Fakkan, one minor injury, route continued. UKMTO 179-26 (21 October), a tanker about 11 NM west of Bukha, fire put out, at anchor, crew safe. UKMTO 181-26 (22 October), a tanker about 7 NM northeast of Limah, no casualties, at anchor off Khor Fakkan. JMIC says further attacks were highly likely
• Since JMIC Update 108 (UKMTO 182-26 to 189-26): JMIC records 172 incidents since 1 March (six since Update 110). JMIC says Update 110’s total should have read 166, not 167, because of a double count. Attacks in the Strait: GHANA PROSPERITY (182-26, 23 October), disabled and anchored, crew safe; RITI (186-26, 29 October), lost propulsion, anchored, crew safe; LOUISE 1 (187-26, 29 October), engine-room fire after a small boat attached explosive devices to the hull, crew safe, voyage continued; ARZANAH (189-26, 28 October), damaged, crew safe. JMIC lists 185-26 (29 October) as suspicious activity, a vessel on fire off Khasab. UKMTO’s update says a dhow sank after a fire and the crew were evacuated safely
• Off Musandam, 1 to 3 November (UKMTO 191-26, 193-26, 194-26, 195-26): JMIC records four attacks within about 52 hours. The tug SELAT STORM was reported sunk (NAVAREA IX 425/26), and casualty reports are conflicting. A vessel with its name withheld was struck about 9 NM northeast of Limah, with a hole on the starboard side, and the vessel and crew were reported safe. The Indian-crewed dhow MSV AL JUSUFI was attacked while sailing outbound; Indian officials report one crew member died and 13 were rescued by the Royal Navy of Oman. A tanker was struck by two projectiles in the engine room about 14 NM northeast of Limah, with no casualties or environmental impact reported. JMIC says further attacks, including on tugs and dhows, are highly likely, particularly off Musandam
• Development since JMIC Update 111 (UKMTO 197-26, 5 November, 2200 UTC): A time-late report says the master of a tanker leaving the Strait reported an explosion at the waterline on the port side about 16 NM east of Khasab. The crew are safe and accounted for, and the tanker is under its own power and continuing its voyage. JMIC has not yet commented
• US blockade, advice to vessels (JMIC Advisory Note 016-26, 28 October): JMIC shares US NAVCENT NCAGS guidance. The blockade applies to all Iranian ports and coastlines, regardless of flag or ownership. Neutral vessels between neutral ports in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz may be questioned, visited and searched to confirm their intentions. Vessels that do not need to transit the area are advised to remain well clear. Neutral vessels should keep a continuous listening watch on VHF channel 16, follow directions from US forces, be ready to alter course or stop, and plan extra transit time. NAVCENT lists documents to have ready, as applicable: port or customs clearance from the last port of call, bill of lading if laden, certificate of registry, a signed and stamped letter of appointment from the agent at the next port, receipts or signed contracts for provisions, bunkers, spare parts, repairs or crew change, and a terminal, port or berth booking confirmation. All must be signed or stamped and in PDF format. JMIC encourages vessels to contact NAVCENT NCAGS for further information
• IRGC activity: UAV overflight, attempted attacks and/or harassment, targeted surveillance of merchant shipping, and occasional VHF hailing persisted, consistent with prior reporting
• Mining risk: JMIC advises mariners to remain vigilant for attempted mining within and adjacent to the traffic separation scheme. On 17 October the IRGC Navy claimed that two supertankers had struck mines in the Strait; JMIC states there is no substantiation to these claims. JMIC Advisory 004-26 (4 May) stated that mines had not been fully surveyed. UKMTO’s timeline records that CENTCOM reported the lanes cleared on 28 August
• Traffic (Update 111): JMIC says traffic remained at reduced levels compared with the 2025 baseline of roughly 138 vessels a day. Independent tracking showed single to low double-digit transits a day. US NCAGS data showed about 126 US-facilitated transits over 1 to 4 November (an average of about 31 a day, against 34 a day over 24 to 30 October). JMIC counted about 229 vessels stationary at the main anchorages east of the Strait (Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, Sohar and Musandam) and expects the backlog to persist. The two measures come from different sources: US NCAGS for US-facilitated transits, and S&P Maritime/SeaVision for non-facilitated cargo vessels above 1,000 deadweight tons
• UKMTO comment on reporting (Report No. 14, 6 November): UKMTO reports only incidents verified through primary sources. It lists 11 attacks in the week: 8 in the Strait of Hormuz and 3 in the Arabian Gulf. UKMTO counts 155 Iran-US conflict-related incidents since 28 February (145 in Report No. 13) and 96 incidents reported in the Strait. Combined transits over seven days were 170 outbound and 155 inbound (122 and 155 the week before), about 65% below pre-conflict levels. AIS-observed transits rose to 71 (64 the week before). UKMTO says it cannot independently verify the US NCAGS figures at this stage
• JMIC outlook (Update 111): Deliberate attacks remain rated highly likely. Traffic is expected to remain reduced on both the northern Iranian-controlled route and the southern Omani corridor. Vessels transiting with AIS on face an elevated targeting risk and directed hails to divert to the northern route. The US blockade of Iranian ports continues. JMIC advises a 30 NM standoff from US units. Neutral transit is permitted, but vessels should expect visit-and-search checks and increased VHF hails. A vetted humanitarian-cargo exemption remains through NAVCENT NCAGS
• Industry guidance: Industry guidance on transit of the Strait of Hormuz was produced and supported by ICS, IMCA, INTERCARGO, BIMCO, INTERTANKO and OCIMF (May 2026): Guidance on the Strait of Hormuz (PDF, hosted by UKMTO)

US blockade-enforcement activity against Iran-bound shipping continues, and one vessel was struck at anchor near Sohar.

• PETRO DOLPHIN (UKMTO 165-26): On 11 October the products tanker was struck by a UAV in the vicinity of Sohar anchorage, Oman, and the crew were evacuated. The Ministry of External Affairs, India, reported two crew members missing. NAVAREA IX 372/26 reported that on 14 October the vessel was drifting about 50 NM north-east of Sohar port
• Ocean Molica (UKMTO 163-26): CENTCOM reported that it disabled the bulk carrier after it ignored repeated warnings and attempted to run the blockade. Precision munitions were used to disable its propulsion, and the crew were reported safe. JMIC Update 104 gives the date as 10 October in its text and 11 October in its table
• CAPE DAO (UKMTO 142-26, 23 September): NAVAREA IX 380/26 (16 October) reported the bulk carrier as sinking and drifting east about 33 NM northeast of Port Al Suwaiq, and cancelled NAVAREA IX 370/26. JMIC Update 106 states that she has not sunk. JMIC Update 109 (29 October) says the vessel identified by the IMO as CAPE DAO (IMO 9219020), attacked earlier (UKMTO 142-26, updated 26 October), was reported sunk about 35 NM east of Sohar, Oman (NAVAREA IX 403/26, 24 October, since cancelled). JMIC’s wording has changed between updates, and we cannot tell from the sources whether she has sunk. JMIC Update 099 reported one fatality and one injury
• Blockade figures: According to CENTCOM figures relayed by JMIC (1 November), 144 commercial vessels have been redirected, four disabled and two boarded for blockade compliance. No further enforcement action was announced in JMIC’s latest period
• Anchorages (5 November): About 179 vessels were at anchor off Fujairah/Khor Fakkan (181 on 29 October, 194 on 25 October, 217 on 18 October) and about 50 off Musandam/Sohar (58 on 29 October). JMIC expects congestion to persist
• Blockade advice (JMIC Advisory Note 016-26, 28 October): JMIC shares US NAVCENT NCAGS guidance that neutral vessels between neutral ports in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz may be questioned, visited and searched, that vessels with no need to transit should stay well clear, and that vessels should keep listening on VHF channel 16 and have their voyage documents ready as signed or stamped PDFs. The full list is on the Strait of Hormuz card
• Earlier (JMIC Update 095, 9 September): Several vessels were disabled, one of which later sank (UKMTO 128-26, 129-26)
• JMIC outlook (Update 111): Persistent IRGC monitoring and routing pressure in the western Gulf of Oman. Further east and south, attacks are possible but not likely, and risk falls with distance from Musandam and Jask. Neutral vessels between non-Iranian ports may be questioned, visited and searched under the blockade and should have the documents listed in JMIC Advisory Note 016-26 ready. JMIC advises a 30 NM standoff from US units and a continuous watch on VHF channel 16. Electronic interference remains a credible concern

No attacks have been reported; JMIC sees no imminent change to the threat environment. UKMTO advisory 178-26 is shown below.

• Recent activity: No confirmed attacks or disruptions were reported by JMIC through 5 November (Update 111)
• Update 107 (UKMTO advisory 178-26, 19 October, 1000 UTC): UKMTO received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces about 121 NM east of Duqm, Oman. UKMTO says reports indicate the tanker “was subject to interaction as part of ongoing military activity in the region”. JMIC records the event as a military interaction, not an attack, identifies the tanker as CHLOE (citing the IMO), describes the activity as ongoing blockade activity, and reports no crew injuries. JMIC’s table dates it 20 October, while UKMTO gives 19 October. JMIC says further interaction with military forces enforcing the blockade is possible and no change in the threat is expected
• Context: Naval forces continued routine patrols and commercial traffic transited without disruption. The wider operating environment remains influenced by regional tensions

No new confirmed incidents in JMIC Update 111. The fishing vessel AZINI was reported liberated on 2 November. JMIC lists MT Asana as the only merchant vessel remaining hijacked, and UKMTO’s 6 November report says the same as of 28 October.

• MT Asana: Tanzania-flagged product/chemical tanker, hijacked 17 July about 65 NM southwest of Mukalla, Yemen. Still held per JMIC Update 111. UKMTO’s 6 November report puts the time in captivity at about 103 days as of 28 October
• MT Honour 25: Palau-flagged product tanker, hijacked 21 April. Released 29 September (UKMTO). JMIC Update 101 reports Puntland recoveries and five vessel crew casualties; the wording does not say how many were fatalities and how many injuries
• MT Eureka: Togo-flagged product tanker, hijacked 2 May. Abandoned by the pirates on 29 September (UKMTO)
• MT Seamull: Eritrea-flagged tanker, hijacked 20 August. Released 25 September (UKMTO)
• MV Sward: Held since 26 April. UKMTO records its release on 11 September
• UKMTO statistics (Report No. 14, 6 November): 44 piracy-related incidents this year: 11 boardings and hijackings, 5 attacks and 28 suspicious activity reports. UKMTO says five vessels have been released or recovered since 19 August (LUTUF, SWARD, SEAMULL, HONOUR 25 and EUREKA)
• AZINI (UKMTO 190-26, MSCIO 161/26): The fishing vessel was boarded and taken by armed persons about 29 October, east-southeast of Socotra (UKMTO gives 09°54’N 053°04’E). MSCIO assessed that it could be used as a mother ship. MSCIO reported it liberated on 2 November, and UKMTO says the Indian Navy recovered the vessel, detained those on board and rescued the original crew. JMIC says the incident indicates that Pirate Action Group range is likely to extend across the northern Somali Basin toward the routes east and south of Socotra
• JMIC outlook (Update 111): Pirate Action Group activity remains possible. Skiff operations further offshore are more feasible since the southwest monsoon withdrew on 15 October, and sea state in the Somali Basin is forecast to stay slight. Pirate Action Groups retain the capability to board and divert merchant vessels along the Somali coast, IRTC approaches and adjacent Gulf of Aden lanes

JMIC cites piracy-related events and Houthi rhetoric and attacks, with a strong possibility of a maritime security incident.

• Recent activity: JMIC Update 111 reports no confirmed attacks or suspicious approaches in its period, and relatively steady traffic. The 30 October and 28 October reports are below
• Earlier incident (10 September): The cargo ship Glamor, 32 NM south of Yemen (UKMTO 132-26): unauthorised personnel boarded and the crew went to the citadel. The boarders did not take control of the vessel and left. All crew were reported safe. UKMTO records the status as a hijack that was unsuccessful
• UKMTO comment (Report No. 14, 6 November): UKMTO says incidents meeting the criteria for piracy have moved from the eastern Somali coast toward the Gulf of Aden, and that hijackings and boardings show a proven capability up to 500 NM offshore. It also reports no attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb in the week; the last was on 24 August
• Update 106 (UKMTO 176-26, 17 October, 1030 UTC): JMIC records that the master of an LNG tanker reported being approached by a skiff with seven persons on board, about 140 NM southeast of Al Mukalla, Yemen. The skiff fired two shots at the vessel. The embarked armed security team fired two warning shots, and the skiff altered course. NAVAREA IX 383/26 reported the event as an attempted piracy and advised mariners to keep clear
• Update 109 (UKMTO advisory 184-26, 28 October, 1030 UTC): UKMTO received reports from various sources, passed on by military authorities, of suspicious activity in the Gulf of Aden that is potentially indicative of Pirate Action Group activity. Reports describe several sightings of suspicious small craft operating near merchant vessels. One report describes a green and blue boat with two ladders and one hook with 9 persons on board. UKMTO advises vessels to transit with caution, follow BMP MS guidance and report suspicious activity to UKMTO. Authorities are investigating. This is an advisory, not an attack warning, and it is dated after JMIC Update 108
• Update 110 (30 October, MSCIO 160/26): A fast skiff with four persons on board, reportedly fitted with a mounted machine gun, approached a merchant vessel to about 300 m, about 50 NM south of Aden. It aborted when the embarked armed security team displayed weapons. JMIC calls this the third report of suspicious small craft near merchant vessels since 17 October (with UKMTO 176-26 and 184-26). NAVAREA IX 416/26, issued after 184-26, was in force until 3 November, and JMIC has identified no replacement. Separately, Yemen’s government military spokesperson reported Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Aden International Airport and Al-Maashiq Presidential Palace on 30 October. Damage, casualties and effects on shipping or port operations are unverified (JMIC)
• JMIC outlook (Update 111): Attacks and piracy-related activity remain a strong possibility in the Gulf of Aden and the IRTC. Small-craft groups retain close-approach capability, and Pirate Action Groups can still board and divert merchant vessels now that monsoon restrictions are gone. Further approaches are likely in the western Gulf of Aden and the IRTC. Sea state is forecast to stay slight, which permits continued skiff operations. MSCIO advises strict adherence to BMP-MS

JMIC holds the rating at Substantial, citing Houthi attacks on vessels and infrastructure and territorial gains along the Yemeni Red Sea coast.

• Recent activity: No confirmed attacks or disruptions were reported from 8 October to 5 November. The most recent was on 4 October, when a tanker (CHRYSTAL SKY) saw a loud airburst within 100 metres of the starboard bow, followed by 7 to 8 smaller explosions. No damage or injuries; the vessel continued. UKMTO logged this as suspicious activity (151-26). JMIC assesses it as a probable intercepted aerial threat, with no attribution confirmed. UKMTO’s 16 October report assesses it as spillover from the ongoing land conflict, not intentional targeting of the vessel
• UKMTO Report No. 14 (6 November): No attacks or suspicious activity were reported to UKMTO in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb in the week, and the last attack on shipping was on 24 August. UKMTO counts 6 attacks on shipping in the Red Sea this year. Bab el-Mandeb transits remain 24% below the level before the Houthi blockade announcement of 22 July. UKMTO reports more vessels describing interactions with claimed Yemeni authorities, and says recognised Government and Houthi sources give conflicting accounts of control of coastal areas
• Regional activity: On 13 October the Saudi-led Coalition struck Houthi fuel facilities in Hudaydah, reported to include fuel unloading berths or piers. JMIC notes Houthi missile launches toward Saudi Arabia continued over the last 96 hours
• Airstrikes (JMIC Update 109): JMIC says Saudi coalition airstrikes on Mocha and Dhubab were confirmed from 28 to 29 October, hitting the port city of Mocha, including a security headquarters and an area near the port
• Suspicious activity (MSCIO 168/26, 3 November): A merchant vessel observed a large floating object, possibly a boat, surrounded by smoke in the Bab el-Mandeb. No distress calls were received and the circumstances are unknown. JMIC reports no attack on a merchant vessel in the period
• Piracy notice: NAVAREA IX 363/26 reported piracy activity in the traffic separation scheme at 12-58N 043-12E, 12 NM west of Dhubab. JMIC Update 104 assessed this was likely an incident where local fishermen fired shots in the air as a warning, with the merchant vessel reporting it. Mariners are still advised to keep a sharp lookout and report suspicious activity
• Territorial control (JMIC wording has changed): JMIC Update 103 stated that Houthi forces remained in control of Mocha, Mayun/Perim, Zuqar and the Hanish islands after the 10 to 12 September seizures. JMIC Update 104 stated they remain in control of Mocha and much of the territory seized in September. JMIC Update 105 states that reported Houthi control of the September coastal gains is disputed pending independent confirmation
• Territorial control (Updates 107 to 111): JMIC says Houthi forces retain coastal presence and strike capability along the southern Red Sea approaches following the September gains. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counter-offensive in early October and have claimed gains in the Bab el-Mandeb approaches; JMIC says the extent of control remains contested and unverified by independent sources. JMIC says expansion into indiscriminate targeting of all commercial shipping remains unlikely, and that Houthi long-range missile and drone capability against the waterway is assessed as retained despite limited government gains. The last confirmed Houthi attack on a merchant vessel was on 24 August
• JMIC geography of risk: JMIC states the threat to shipping remains elevated since the 10 September territorial gains adjacent to the strait, which shorten engagement ranges for missiles, drones, USVs, artillery or fast boats. Expansion into indiscriminate targeting of all commercial shipping is described as possible, but not the declared policy
• Houthi position: The Houthis announced a selective embargo on 20 July. JMIC Update 097 recorded Houthi statements that there is no intent to close Bab el-Mandeb to international shipping, with restrictions aimed at Saudi-linked vessels. JMIC explains that its rating reflects recent attacks, sustained intent against Saudi-affiliated interests and maintained capability. UKMTO records 6 fatalities since the Saudi blockade
• Traffic (Update 111): 136 vessel transits over 1 to 4 November (past 96 hours), about 34 a day (38, 37, 35 and 26), against about 28 a day the previous week and a historical average of about 61 a day (2023 baseline). Traffic remains below the level before the 20 July selective embargo. JMIC describes Bab el-Mandeb as open to commercial traffic but volatile, and says Houthi statements continue to assert that non-Saudi commercial shipping may transit safely. In Update 109 JMIC recorded 93 transits over 25 to 28 October, with a significant reduction on 28 October
• Earlier traffic (Update 105): 117 vessel transits over 11 to 14 October (past 96 hours), against a historical average of about 61 a day (2023 baseline). JMIC notes traffic remains below the level before the 20 July selective embargo
• Refugee boats: Refugee boats continue between Yemen and Djibouti, often without AIS or radar reflectors (JMIC Updates 098 and 099). Mariners are advised to keep a sharp lookout
• Pipeline: JMIC Update 100 recorded pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline struck by drones on 10 and 11 September. Loadings have resumed at Yanbu. JMIC Update 103 described the pipeline as partly functioning, and Updates 104 and 105 as functioning again. As of the morning of 6 October the figure was 5.8 million barrels in Updates 103 and 104, and 5.8 million barrels per day in Update 105. It was confirmed by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister on 6 October and corroborated by ship tracking
• Coalition status (as of 24 September, not restated since): JMIC Update 099 reported the Saudi-led maritime defence coalition at Initial Operational Capability

JMIC reports Suez Canal operations remain normal, with periodic electromagnetic interference possible.

• Recent activity: No confirmed attacks or disruptions were reported by JMIC through 5 November (Update 111). JMIC reports one possible attack on 1 October striking Yanbu and causing minor disruption to port operations
• Yanbu (Update 106): On 16 October Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence reported intercepting a ballistic missile targeting Yanbu and two cruise missiles over the Red Sea. JMIC says this shows Saudi Red Sea terminals remain within Houthi weapons range. No other attack on ports or terminals was reported in the period
• Traffic (Updates 107 to 111): JMIC says maritime traffic in the Northern Red Sea and Suez Canal held steady over the last 96 hours, and that AIS usage at Yanbu berths and approaches is expected to stay minimal
• Yanbu loadings: Ship loadings have resumed at Yanbu after the 10 and 11 September strikes on the East-West pipeline. JMIC Updates 104 and 105 describe the pipeline as functioning again (Update 103: partly functioning). The 6 October figure is given as 5.8 million barrels in Updates 103 and 104 and 5.8 million barrels per day in Update 105. It was confirmed by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister on 6 October and corroborated by ship-tracking data. JMIC expects AIS-off activity at Yanbu berths and approaches to persist
• Houthi statement (JMIC Update 100): Houthi statements on 5 August signalled intent to extend their claimed risk area into the northern Red Sea

JMIC reports no security incidents and keeps the rating at Low.

• Recent activity: No confirmed attacks or disruptions were reported through 5 November
• Other conditions: Localised electromagnetic interference persists, and regional naval presence remains consistent. JMIC advises prudent separation from military units

JMIC does not cover the Black Sea. US MARAD advisory 2026-012 (active from 23 September 2026 to 22 March 2027, replacing 2026-005) states that commercial vessels have reportedly been struck by projectiles and experienced explosions, warns of a “high risk of damage to commercial vessels in the region”, and notes reports of moored and drifting naval mines.

• 5 October, Romania: A cargo ship carrying corn, the Royad Mammadov, caught fire and sank. Romanian authorities say 2 people died and 11 were rescued. President Zelenskyy said two Russian drones were responsible. Romania’s Interior Ministry has not identified a cause
• 6 October, Bulgaria: About 70 NM east of Byala, within Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, two merchant ships were hit. Alfa Watan sank (flag given as Togo by Reuters and Al Jazeera; Maritime Executive reported Tonga). Reuters (via gCaptain) reports 10 crew missing; AP reports 12 aboard with none accounted for; the search ended on 7 October. Able (Palau flag, carrying wheat) caught fire and its crew was rescued. Reports say the captain was released from hospital with a head injury and the chief engineer was severely burned and remained in hospital. On 8 October the Bulgarian frigate Verni found Able about 55 NM north-east of Cape Emine, stable and down by the stern, and found no drone debris · Maritime Executive, 7 October
• 13 October, Bulgaria: Chelsea 3: The Malta-flagged cargo ship was hit by three drones about 18 NM east of Byala. Bulgarian border police rescued all 15 crew. Reports on injuries differ, from minor injuries to none serious. Maritime Executive reported on 16 October that it was drifting and had not sunk · Al Jazeera, 13 October, citing AP and Reuters
• 13 October, Bulgaria: HS Dignity: The Guinea-Bissau-flagged cargo ship sank off Krapets with 16 aboard. Bulgarian officials say 5 were rescued and 11 are missing; the search was continuing at the time of reporting. Reports place it between 13 and 17 NM east of the coast · Al Jazeera, 13 October, citing AP and Reuters
• 14 October, Romania: The Comoros-flagged tanker Yara J, at anchor near the Sulina Canal, caught fire and the crew put it out. Romania said it was investigating a possible drone attack. Reported by press agencies; not yet confirmed by a second source · AP via Courthouse News, 15 October
• 15 October, Romania: The San Marino-flagged chemical tanker Wine Trader caught fire about 13 NM south-east of Sulina. Romania’s naval authority reported 5 rescued and 7 missing. President Dan said “Two drones hit them”. A second source (Maritime Executive, 16 October) also reports a drone strike · AP via Courthouse News, 15 October
• Update, 16 October (Maritime Executive): Wine Trader was abandoned and at anchor about 12 NM off Romania near the Sulina Canal, struck by “one or more drones”. Five crew were rescued and 7 were reported missing, and a Romanian helicopter team and patrol boat were sent to board and continue the search in strong winds and rough seas. This is a second source for the 15 October report. Chelsea 3 was reported drifting into Bulgaria’s 12-mile zone; a tow toward Burgas was turned back by weather, and officials plan to search it for drone fragments once it is anchored at Burgas. Bulgaria’s defence minister said Bulgaria has written to NATO’s Secretary-General and Supreme Allied Commander requesting aircraft and anti-drone systems, with NATO’s response pending. We found no later reports from Tier 1 or Tier 3 sources we could read · Maritime Executive, 16 October
• 23 October, Romania: KHORYV: The Comoros-flagged cargo ship, on its way from Türkiye to Sulina, was struck by a drone and sank about 13 NM off Constanța, just outside Romanian territorial waters. AP and Al Jazeera report one body recovered, three crew missing and nine rescued. A Reuters factbox lists all crew as rescued, so the reports differ. Romania’s President and Prime Minister called it a result of Russia’s aggression, and Russia did not immediately comment · AP via Al Jazeera, 23 October
• 28 October, Bulgaria: CONTSHIP JET: The Liberia-flagged, Greek-owned container ship, sailing from Haifa to Constanța, was struck by three naval drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone and sank. Bulgaria’s Defence Minister placed it about 21 NM southeast of Shabla. All 18 crew were rescued and taken to Varna. We could not open a Tier 1 source for this item · AP via ABC News, 28 October; Reuters, 3 November; Yahoo News, 29 October
• NATO and MARAD: We could not open the NATO Shipping Centre site for this update, and have not read its notices ourselves. Gard’s industry summary of the NATO Shipping Centre warning of 23 July 2026 says the rise in attacks on commercial shipping “poses serious risks to the safety of navigation, life at sea and the marine environment”, that GNSS interference continues mainly along the northern and western Black Sea coasts, and that vessels should report incidents to the NSC, keep AIS on as SOLAS requires and keep a VHF channel 16 watch. Gard also reports that the Joint War Committee widened its Black Sea Listed Area on 16 September 2026. MARAD advisory 2026-012 was checked on 7 November and is active until 22 March 2027 · Gard, updated 29 September 2026; MARAD
• Attribution and responses: Bulgaria has not named a responsible party for the October strikes off its coast. For the 23 October KHORYV sinking, Romania’s President and Prime Minister blamed Russia, and Russia did not immediately comment. Bulgarian PM Rumen Radev said the outcome “benefits the Russian Federation” but that “we cannot prove it”. Bulgaria summoned Russia’s ambassador, who said she had no information from Russia’s Ministry of Defence and did not rule out a provocation by a third party. Maritime Executive reported earlier that Russia and Ukraine both denied involvement in the 6 October strikes. European Commission President von der Leyen said the Black Sea “has become another front of escalation of the Russian war in Ukraine”. NATO Secretary General Rutte said NATO “will continue to work closely with our Allies in the Black Sea”. Per AP (23 October), NATO said it would send more maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems and drones to the Black Sea, and Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria asked NATO to fast-track surveillance for commercial shipping. No NATO Maritime Command or Shipping Centre text has been available for this review
• Scale of recent attacks: AP counted at least seven cargo ships hit off Romania and Bulgaria in the two weeks to 23 October, with 30 sailors reported killed or missing. A Reuters factbox (3 November) lists nine vessels struck between 5 and 28 October. Counts differ by source and date
• Russian Ministry of Defence claim: Around 13 October Russia’s Ministry of Defence claimed it struck a dry cargo ship carrying military and dual-use goods to Mykolaiv. Ukraine confirmed damage to a cargo terminal there; the claim about a vessel is unverified (Maritime Executive). Earlier claims dated 25 August and 28 September could not be verified by Reuters
• 23 September, near Odesa: A cargo ship (Antigua and Barbuda flag) was hit. Ukraine’s border guard and ports authority say the master was killed and 15 crew evacuated. Russia’s Ministry of Defence claimed it destroyed a dry cargo ship carrying military cargo; this is unverified
• July and August: Ships were reported hit at Russian ports in August, including fires and abandoned vessels, and a strike on Novorossiysk on 12 August; MSC suspended Novorossiysk bookings on 27 August. Ukrainian port traffic was reported halted at times, and Maersk rerouted a Romania feeder away from Chornomorsk. Odesa prosecutors’ claim of 28 ships struck is unverified