Strait of Hormuz
Persian Gulf – Gulf of Oman
Severe
Active war between US/Israeli forces and Iran, disrupting transit since 28 February 2026.
- Recent activity: no confirmed attack in the four days to 10 September, but IRGC UAV overflight, surveillance, and VHF hailing continued
- Mining risk: mariners advised to watch for mining activity in and near the traffic separation scheme
- Traffic: well below the 2025 baseline of roughly 138 vessels a day
- JMIC outlook: deliberate hostile action rated highly likely
Arabian Gulf
Between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE
Moderate
Residual kinetic risk tied to ongoing blockade-enforcement activity.
- Recent activity: three incidents in the four days to 10 September, including a tanker disabled near Kharg Island and one struck by an unknown projectile south of Al-Faw, Iraq
- Casualties: one vessel at Port Rashid anchorage found listing after a suspected projectile strike — one confirmed fatality, one crew member still missing
- JMIC outlook: further attack possible but not likely under current conditions
Gulf of Oman
Between Iran, Oman, and the UAE
Moderate
Ongoing US blockade-enforcement activity against Iran-bound shipping.
- Recent activity: four incidents in the four days to 10 September — US forces disabled an LPG tanker and three other tankers; one disabled vessel later sank
- Blockade status: as of 9 September, CENTCOM had redirected 94 commercial vessels, disabled several, and boarded two for compliance checks
Arabian Sea
South of Oman and Pakistan
Moderate
Stable at present, but shaped by the wider regional picture.
- Recent activity: no confirmed attacks or disruptions in the four days to 10 September
- Context: naval patrols continue and traffic transits without disruption, though the broader environment remains shaped by the Hormuz war and resurgent Somali piracy nearby
Gulf of Aden
Between Yemen and the Horn of Africa
Substantial
Piracy-related activity and Houthi rhetoric keep this corridor at strong risk.
- Recent activity: one incident — attempted boarding of the cargo ship Glamor, repelled after the crew mustered in the ship's citadel; all crew confirmed safe
- JMIC outlook: strong risk of a security incident in coastal approaches, transit corridors, and small-craft areas
Bab el-Mandeb & Southern Red Sea
Between Yemen and the Horn of Africa
Substantial — likely under-rated, see note
JMIC's own rating predates a major development the next day.
- JMIC rating (10 Sept): Substantial, tied to sustained Houthi attack intent since a 20 July blockade declaration against Saudi Arabia
- Since this report: on 11 September, Houthi forces took control of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, including the port of Mokha and a strategic island at the strait's narrowest point
- Same day: drone strikes forced a shutdown of a major Saudi east-west oil pipeline
- Outlook: treat current risk as likely higher than Substantial pending a fresh JMIC assessment
Sources: JMIC Update 095 (10 September 2026); wire reporting, 11 September 2026 ·
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Somali Coast & Somali Basin
Northwest Indian Ocean
Moderate
Five merchant vessels remain hijacked and held as of the reporting date.
- Recent activity: no confirmed attacks in the four days to 10 September
- Vessels held: MT Honour 25 (Palau-flagged, taken 21 Apr), MV Sward (Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged, taken 26 Apr), MT Eureka (Togo-flagged, taken 2 May), MT Asana (Tanzania-flagged, taken 17 Jul), MT Seamull / Sibu 1 (Eritrea-flagged, taken 20 Aug)
- Outlook: pirate action group activity remains possible; monsoon conditions currently restrict offshore skiff range, but coastal opportunism persists
Northern Red Sea & Suez Canal
Egypt
Moderate
Canal operations continue normally, with residual electronic interference.
- Recent activity: no confirmed attack or incident in the four days to 10 September
- Status: Suez Canal operations continue with steady tanker flows and selective container-vessel returns
- Hazard: periodic GNSS and electronic interference near Yanbu and the northern approaches
Eastern Mediterranean
Near Cyprus and the Levant
Low
Consistent with the persistent low-risk baseline.
- Recent activity: no confirmed attacks or disruptions in the four days to 10 September
- Hazard: localized GNSS and electronic interference possible near Cyprus and the Levant
Black Sea & CPC Terminal
Novorossiysk, Russia
Elevated — independently assessed, not JMIC-rated
Recurring Ukrainian strikes on Russian naval assets and port infrastructure.
- Recent activity: a large combined strike on 8–9 September damaged multiple warships and forced a halt to grain-terminal operations at the port
- Context: strikes on the Novorossiysk naval base and supporting infrastructure have recurred through 2026
Sources: Naval News and wire reporting, 9–10 September 2026. Outside JMIC's coverage area ·
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